Sunday, May 19, 2013

Will Hutton on the Future of Automation

A thought-provoking article by Will Hutton in the Guardian/Observer on the consequences of automation on employment:
Will Hutton, “Driverless Cars, Pilotless Planes … Will There be Jobs Left for a Human Being?,” Guardian, Sunday 19 May 2013.
It is strange that there is no mention of the need to maintain aggregate demand, but otherwise the speculations at the end make interesting reading.

I am inclined to think we are only seeing the the small effects of these processes now, and the really huge changes will be more a medium to long term problem, something that will become acute from 2030s or 2040s, though that is just a wild guess.

A final point about energy technology: I suspect many people think of nuclear fusion as the promise that bounced, but recent news about the international nuclear fusion project should give people pause. Unfortunately, at a conservative estimate commercial fusion reactors might not be around until the 2050s.

10 comments:

  1. i liked the article.

    Its no mystery why new technologies don't generate new jobs as fast. You're right, most of it is due to aggregate demand.

    But also some of it is due to the fact that the rate of technological growth really hasn't been all that great. Yes we have the internet. But we still run on fossil fuels.

    Have you ever seen the sci-fi movies of the 80's and 90's. (And even the 60's. Space Odyssey 2001?) Some of them depict futures in the early 21st century with flying cars and sentient computers. Where are they!?

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    1. Yes, in terms of energy, human civilisation still basically burns the refined products of dead animal and plant matter.

      But even that could change this century. The price and efficiency of solar cells is falling, for example.

      And I know a lot of people think nuclear fusion is the promise that bounced, but have a read of this:

      The international nuclear fusion project – known as Iter, meaning “the way” in Latin – is designed to demonstrate a new kind of nuclear reactor capable of producing unlimited supplies of cheap, clean, safe and sustainable electricity from atomic fusion.

      If Iter demonstrates that it is possible to build commercially-viable fusion reactors then it could become the experiment that saved the world in a century threatened by climate change and an expected three-fold increase in global energy demand.


      http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/one-giant-leap-for-mankind-13bn-iter-project-makes-breakthrough-in-the-quest-for-nuclear-fusion-a-solution-to-climate-change-and-an-age-of-clean-cheap-energy-8590480.html

      I've added a link to this above too.

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    2. "Have you ever seen the sci-fi movies of the 80's and 90's. (And even the 60's. Space Odyssey 2001?) Some of them depict futures in the early 21st century with flying cars and sentient computers. Where are they!?"

      lol. maybe we need to wait another 50 years for flying cars...

      Meanwhile we do actually have Star Trek-like "communicators", right? -- the humble cell phone! :)

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  2. Fossil power issue is not a matter of technology, but of the power of vested interests to keep exploiting fossil fuels as long as enormous profits can be made from using it.

    How about a mandatory investment in 21st century technology (like electric cars, and photovoltaics--- every leaf on a tree is a solar panel and they are renewed annually) and corresponding reduction in use of conventional technology.

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  3. It is strange that there is no mention of the need to maintain aggregate demand

    "So am I saying that you can have full employment based on purchases of yachts, luxury cars, and the services of personal trainers and celebrity chefs? Well, yes."

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/20/inequality-and-recovery/

    I read full employment here as sustained aggregate demand.

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    1. I know Krugman can't see problems with 'trickle down', but I can.

      It's to do with 'needs' and 'wants'. If you produce the wants first how do you know that you're going to avoid running out of production capacity before you get all the needs sorted. The magic of the market?

      Not at all convinced that it will sort itself out mystically. It certainly isn't at the moment, and hasn't over a great period of time.

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    2. If you produce the wants first how do you know that you're going to avoid running out of production capacity before you get all the needs sorted.

      This sounds quite Austrian (as in ABCT). But even I don't think there's much risk of actually running out of the production capacity of basic staples, and robots/3d printing/biotech will enhance our overall productive capacity tremendously.

      Automation-driven productivity increasingly makes it appear that the scaremongering about the "demographic crisis" of the West has been overdone. While East Asia and parts of Europe have taken it to extreme limits, a gently falling fertility rate is a good thing, esp. considering that medical technology will allow people to live progressively longer.

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  4. Have you read "The revolution that never was" by Will Hutton?

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    1. I regret that I haven't. I probably should add it to my reading list!

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  5. It's very good. Check it out asap!

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